CAN WE PREDICT MARINE ECOSYSTEMS AND FISHERIES? A LOOK AT THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT
The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) is one of the world’s most productive coastal systems. Seasonal winds bring deep, nutrient-rich water to the surface, fueling primary production that supports fisheries, wildlife, and coastal economies. The CCE is shaped by physical and biogeochemical conditions that vary from days to decades and beyond. Predicting this variability matters because many managed species, and the people who depend on them, are sensitive to changes in temperature, nutrients, oxygen, and related processes. In this talk, I will summarize recent and ongoing efforts to assess how predictable the CCE is across multiple time horizons: seasonal to interannual (~1–24 months), decadal (~5–20 years), and long-term (~50–100 years). I will highlight when and where forecasts of key physical and biogeochemical properties show usable skill, and, when known, the ocean processes that create that predictability (for example, large-scale climate patterns that influence coastal conditions). Skillful forecasts at these timescales can provide actionable guidance for fisheries and other ocean management decisions in the California Current.